Fox's "24: Live Another Day": tick tick tick, will it be a hit revival?

Tick tick tick, "24: Live Another Day" is just about eight hours away as I write this post. Over at the indispensable TV By the Numbers, there is a poll for guessing the ratings for tonight's premiere. TVBN looks only at the 18-49 year old share, because that is all that advertisers care about, which means I have just a few more years of being a relevant TV viewer for them.

Anyway, in today's world, a 2.0 rating is pretty good (and Friday nights tolerate lower numbers). ABC's "Scandal" is a megahit because it draws 3.0 or better most nights.

I guessed 3.0-3.4, which is probably optimistic, but "24" ended with a 2.7 rating in its series finale, and that was viewed as a disappointment. In fact, that last season was pretty much a disappointment, ranking only above the really lame season 6 in my view. Absence does make the heart grow fonder in some instances, and this appears to be one of them. Plus, nearly all shows premiere higher than they end up, so even season 8 was starting off higher than a 2.7. On the other hand, TV ratings have been declining across the board, with more shows spread across more network and cable channels.

I wonder what rating would ensure another 12-episode season next year.